Kelly Matush, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Political Science, co-authored “Militarized State-building Interventions and the Survival of Fragile States” published in Journal of Peace alongside David A. Lake, Ph.D., Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego. The following summary was written by Sarah Brophy (B.S. Political Science and History ‘25).
Kelly Matush, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Political Science, co-authored her thesis “Militarized State-building Interventions and the Survival of Fragile States” alongside David A. Lake, Ph.D., Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego, which explores the variation in the stability of nations which experience militarized state-building interventions.
Dr. Matush argues that intervening states face a tradeoff between supporting a government that will implement the intervenor’s preferred policies and one that is likely to survive.
She investigated this dilemma faced by intervening and found that, on average, militarized state-building interventions do not lead to more stable states. Furthermore, when these interventions back governments that support policies favored by the intervening nation, rebuilding nations are more likely to fail in the future.
Matush and her coauthor measure policy changes based on how the formerly failed nation votes in the UN; where failed nations were more likely to vote in line with the intervening nation, they were also more likely to fail again in the near future.
“Failed states are both a humanitarian crisis and a global threat,” Matush said. “Failed states serve as a refuge for international terrorist groups that threaten the security of other countries. To address these challenges, it is important to understand the impacts of international responses to failed states, such as militarized state-building.”
Dr. Matush explains that militarized state-building efforts are extremely costly as they require intervening nations to use military and diplomatic efforts to stabilize a nation in conflict. As such, intervening nations balance two objectives: 1) shifting the new nation’s policies to favor and align with the goals of the intervening nation and 2) establishing a new nation with long-term stability. These two goals, however, are often at odds with each other, forcing intervening nations to decide whether they want to intervene at all.
To conduct this analysis, Matush first identified failed nation-states between 1956 and 2016 and determined whether they experienced a militarized state-building intervention (MSI) during their failure. After identifying states that experienced an MSI, the researchers determined the long-term stability of these nations and compared them to failed nation-states that did not experience an MSI. Next, they compare the countries’ votes during UN Assemblies to measure the degree to which failed nations aligned policy-wise to the intervening nation.
She notes that, “When an intervenor chooses to encourage a previously failed state to shift policies in their preferred direction, it appears that they forfeit the stabilizing benefits of their intervention.”
“Militarized State-building Interventions and the Survival of Fragile States” has been presented at the American Political Science Association’s annual meeting and the International Political Economy Society’s conference.
Matush believes more research should be done on whether there is a causal relationship between policy shifts in destabilized nations towards intervening nations and overall state stability.
To learn more about Dr. Matush and her work, click here, or to learn more about the Political Science Department, click here.
Matush, K., & Lake, D. A. (2023). Militarized state-building interventions and the survival of fragile states. Journal of Peace Research, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231196610