Lonna Atkeson, Ph.D., is the LeRoy Collins Eminent Scholar in Civic Education and Political Science and director of the LeRoy Collins Institute at Florida State University within the FSU’s College of Social Science and Public Policy. Dr. Atkeson discusses her co-authored article “The Costs of Voting and Voter Confidence,” published in the Political Research Quarterly journal and the Southern Political Science Association journal. The following summary was written by Luqian Li (B.A. Media Communication Studies and Sociology ’25).
LeRoy Collins Eminent Scholar in Civic Education and Political Science and Director of the LeRoy Collins Institute Lonna Atkeson, Ph.D., co-authored “The Costs of Voting and Voter Confidence” with Florida State University alumnus Eli McKown-Dawson (B.S. Political Science ’24) and Rice University Professor of Political Science Robert M. Stein.
Dr. Atkeson and co-authors argue that the effect of ballot access on voter confidence is conditioned by partisanship/vote choice, and the election results signify such effects. They state that Republicans tend to view ballot restrictions as an effort to combat voter fraud, while Democrats condemn them as voter suppression.
The study finds that when their presidential candidate loses, Republicans in states with higher ballot access costs show significantly higher voter confidence, while Democrats in the same conditions show significantly lower confidence when compared to their counterparts in states with low ballot access costs. This effect is stronger among Republicans.
These findings demonstrate the complex relationship between ballot access and voter confidence, a key issue in the landmark Supreme Court case Crawford v. Marion County Election Board (2008). In this case, the Court upheld Indiana’s voter ID law, ruling it did not only not infringe on voters’ rights but was a necessary step to ensure election integrity. While the Court’s decision has its merit, Dr. Atkeson suggests the impact of such laws on voter confidence is more nuanced than anticipated.
“The results suggest that voter confidence is much more complex than we may have initially imagined and that the majority in the Supreme Court case Crawford vs. Marion County Election Board (2008) may have been correct in their thinking that laws can influence voter confidence,” Dr. Atkeson said. “However, what they did not consider is that this might be conditional on whether you believe the election is too accessible or too secure. The justices thought the direction would only flow one way and that security would increase confidence, but… it appears to work both ways.”
The findings are based on a cross-analysis of the impact of the cost of voting index (COVI) and partisanship on voter confidence. COVI is often used by political scientists, policymakers, and voting rights advocates to measure the relative difficulty of voting in each state and how that impacts participation. First, the authors test COVI’s direct effect, replicating past studies. Then, they examine how partisanship interacts with COVI, using it as a proxy for vote choice. They incorporate additional survey data and visualize results using predicted probabilities from logistic regression models to ensure robustness.
Dr. Atkeson believes further research on voter confidence would be beneficial to fully understanding how election outcomes shape voter confidence among Democrats and Republicans. She calls for the continued study of the next election in 2028 to explore possible changes.
To learn more about Dr. Atkeson and her work, click here. To learn more about the Political Science Department, click here.
Atkeson, L. R., McKown-Dawson, E., & Stein, R. M. (2024). The Costs of Voting and Voter Confidence. Political Research Quarterly, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/10659129241283169